Even as Google (News - Alert) sets out to create more “openness” in the mobile services market with its Android platform and Open Handset Alliance (News - Alert), changes are afoot that could have similarly profound effects on what services are available and how they work.

 

What changes, you might ask? Why, nothing less than the 700MHz spectrum auction scheduled for January, 2008. By some estimates, the results of this auction will be apocalyptic (good or bad, take your pick depending on where you stand), harking in a new era of… what? No-one can say for sure yet. But ABI Research (News - Alert) took a stab at answering that question in a new report out Wednesday.

 

ABI thinks the spectrum auction could have a profound effect on the mobile communications market. The research firm thinks this spectrum will be “critical” for the creation of a national public safety communications network in the U.S. It also thinks the spectrum auction may help a new, major mobile operator get started.

 

Hmm… and might that operator’s name start with the letter “g”? Yes, ABI thinks so.

 

“It is Google that should be taken most seriously: they have already stated their willingness to invest $5 billion in the “C” block of spectrum, perhaps in partnership with a network operator, in order to facilitate a more competitive wireless market,” ABI said in its report.

 

Of course, Yahoo! and Apple are also potentially disruptive bidders, but ABI thinks Google, if it makes a play for part of the spectrum, would have the biggest impact on incumbent providers.

 

“If Google becomes an operator, it will intensify the incumbents’ need to compete,” ABI analyst Nadine Manjaro said in the report.  “Google has content and money, and could do a lot with that spectrum. They’d be a strong force to be reckoned with in terms of taking subscribers from the incumbents, especially from a company such Sprint (News - Alert), which is already facing challenges in this area.”

 

For those who haven’t been following this story, ABI explained that the 700MHz spectrum is part of the UHF band (470-862MHz) previously used for analog TV. It’s being up opened as television goes digital. (This is occurring in parts of the world other than the U.S. as well; Europe is set to open up 700MHz in 2010, and Korea in 2012.)

 

While many lobbyists are concerned about the possibility that this spectrum might be auctioned off mostly to a single company (thus stifling competition), the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (the agency that regulates the telecom industry) seem to be leaning toward “spectrum neutrality,” ABI said—that is, letting the market determine how the spectrum should be used.

 

700MHz spectrum, ABI noted, is suitable for WiMAX, mobile broadcast TV and other 4G applications.